On October 18, the Nihon Keizai Shimbun published an article entitled "Japan will lose 53 trillion Yen by separating from China", which criticized the so-called "decoupling from China" argument. Without China, it warned, the cost of all the world's goods would rise sharply.
"Against the backdrop of global supply chain disruptions exacerbated by the Ukraine crisis, European and American countries are still trying to isolate China from the global economic system," the article said. However, the world cannot "de-Sinicize", and if China is lost, the global market will pay a huge price.
The article argues that expanding operations in China is crucial to improving Japan's competitiveness. China accounted for 26 per cent of Japan's imports in 2020, far more than from countries such as the US. The price of Japanese products will also rise if they leave China. For example, the average price of personal computers in Japan will increase by 50%, and the average price of mobile phones will increase by 20%. That is a much bigger increase than the Ukraine crisis has caused in Japan.
According to estimates from Waseda University in Japan, if 80 percent of China's exports of parts and other goods to Japan are interrupted for two months, Japan's home appliances, cars, resins, clothing and food will not be able to produce normally, and about 53 trillion yen (about 2.6 trillion yuan) of production will disappear. That amounts to about 10 per cent of Japan's GDP being wiped out.
Taking Honda as an example, the article said that Honda's sales in the Chinese market accounted for more than 30% of the global sales, so Honda has always adhered to the Chinese market as the "pillar of profitability". Honda said that China is the world's largest auto market and that it must continue to do business in China to improve its profitability. "This development policy has never changed, and it will not be possible to survive without China in the future," the company said.
The article also said that Japan was closely tied to China in everything from importing raw materials to assembling products. What's more, the global market will pay a huge price if China is lost, not just to Japan.
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According to the Japan broadcasting association (NHK) reported on the 19th, the bank of Japan on the day President haruhiko kuroda told the senate budget committee in Japan, said the yen's sharp decline, will bring difficulties to the enterprise business plan, increases uncertainty, also have a negative impact on the Japanese economy, does not want to appear such situation.